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India Predicted to be Fastest Growing Trade Market Till 2020 – HSBC Global Trade Forecast
By: PR Newswire
Dec. 4, 2012 05:41 AM
MUMBAI, December 4, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
Emerging Markets to Drive Global Trade Rebound
The HSBC Trade Forecast highlights India's critical role in world trade growth over the entire period till 2030. As per the Forecast, India represents the fastest growing import or export partner (or both) between 2013-15 or 2016-2020 for 23 markets. India's trade growth can be linked to its growing consumer wealth and emerging middle class; investment in infrastructure development; the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); its diverse range of exports and a move to produce goods higher up the value chain, and its developing role as a supply chain hub for Asia.
'Dual speed' growth driven by South-South trade
The HSBC Trade Forecast is outlining a dual speed trade rebound as South-South corridors become more established, driving growth to 2015. before being rejoined by the developed world in the later part of the decade.
According to the HSBC Trade Forecast, powerhouses India and China will be joined by emerging trading nations including Vietnam, Indonesia, Egypt, Turkey, Mexico and Poland to record significant trade growth in the next three years. As these economies industrialise, trade in higher value goods will increase, reflecting the greater maturity of these faster-growing economies with large populations and rapidly expanding middle-class consumer markets.
By 2020, HSBC expects that forward-thinking companies worldwide will have exploited multiple trade corridors and partnerships, created effective networked supply chains, and tightened efficiency in their operations as a result. This trend continues through 2021-30, contributing to a stabilising of trade growth which also reflects the growing maturity of emerging markets.
Key market and trade corridor trends from the HSBC Trade Forecast:
HSBC Trade Confidence Index
With a score of 135, India is the most confident country according to the HSBC Trade Confidence Index. Optimism has improved in the last six months with 71% of importers and exporters surveyed expecting trade volumes to increase and another 24% anticipating business to remain at current levels. Their global outlook is more positive than other countries in the region as well with 61% of Indian traders expecting to see growth.
At the same time, however, Indian sellers are not overly confident in their overseas business partners as 43% foresee an increase in defaults. This is double what it was just six months ago. To minimise risk exposure, suppliers intend to use trade finance from banks, export credit insurance and other financial instruments. In fact, 65% of Indian businesses say they will need increased levels of trade financing in the coming months and will look to their banks first for help. Indian importers' confidence in the ability of their overseas suppliers to honour agreements is also slipping. Twelve months ago only 13% expected an increase in non-delivery while 43% do today.
Sandeep Uppal, Managing Director and Head, Commercial Banking, HSBC India said: "Given an expected pick-up in growth in India and a relatively stable global economy in the coming years, exports to all regions are expected to grow fairly robustly, helped by India's wide range of export products. These increasingly will move away from traditional goods to higher value goods and hi-tech products as India steadily develops its technology as well as manufacturing base."
Notes to Editors:
About the HSBC Trade Forecast - Modelled by Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics has tailored a unique service for HSBC which forecasts bilateral trade for total exports/imports of goods, based on HSBC's own analysis and forecasts of the world economy to generate a full bilateral set of trade flows for total imports and exports of goods, and balances between 180 pairs of countries.
Oxford Economics produces a global report for HSBC, plus regional reports and country specific reports on the following 23 countries: Hong Kong, China, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Canada, USA, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, UK, France, Turkey, Germany, Poland, Ireland, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.
Oxford Economics employs a global modelling framework that ensures full consistency between all economies, in part driven by trade linkages. The forecasts take into account factors such as the rate of demand growth in the destination market and the exporter's competitiveness. Exports, imports and trade balances are identified, with both historical estimates and forecasts for the periods 2013-15, 2016-20 and 2021-30.
Oxford Economics - formerly Oxford Economic Forecasting - was founded in 1981 to provide independent forecasting and analysis tailored to the needs of economists and planners in government and business. It is now one of the world's leading providers of economic analysis, advice and models, with over 500 clients. Oxford Economics commands a high degree of professional and technical expertise, both in its own staff of over 70 professionals based in Oxford, London, Belfast, Paris, the UAE, Singapore, Philadelphia and New York, and through its close links with Oxford University and a range of partner institutions in Europe and the US.
Trade Confidence Index
The HSBC Trade Confidence Index covers a total of 20 markets and is the largest trade confidence survey globally. The current survey comprises six-month views of 5,800 exporters, importers and traders from small and mid-market enterprises on: trade volume; buyer and supplier risks; the need for trade finance; access to trade finance; and the impact of foreign exchange on their businesses.
HSBC in India
HSBC is one of India's leading financial services groups, with over 30,000 employees in its banking, investment banking and capital markets, asset management, insurance broking, insurance, software development and global resourcing operations in the country. It is a leading custodian in India. Nearly 6% of India's exports and imports pass through HSBC India's banking channels. The asset management business in India is one of the leading players in the industry. The Bank is at the forefront in arranging deals for Indian companies investing overseas and foreign investments into the country. It has a fully enabled and established insurance advisory of international standards. It is one of the leading players in domestic and export factoring, and one of the leading banks for an increasing number of SMEs. With its extensive reach across Asia, the Americas and Europe, HSBC has the capacity to offer complete banking and financial solutions to India's burgeoning economy. In 2008, it acquired a majority stake in IL&FS Investsmart (now renamed HSBC InvestDirect) that has enabled it to offer retail brokerage services to its customer across a wider geography. It has also formed a joint venture life insurance company with Canara Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce that is among the Top ten private life insurers in the country today.
HSBC's network of branches is located at Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chandigarh, Chennai, Coimbatore, Gurgaon, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Indore, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Kochi, Kolkata, Ludhiana, Lucknow, Mumbai, Mysore, Nagpur, Noida, New Delhi, Nasik, Patna, Pune, Raipur, Surat, Trivandrum, Thane, Vadodara and Visakhapatnam.
HSBC Holdings plc
Primary Media Contact: Sejal Shah, firstname.lastname@example.org, 91-22-22681344
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